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Structural Changes in Global Warming

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In time series analysis, structural changes represent shocks impacting the evolution with time of the data generating process. That is relevant because one of the key assumptions of the Box-Jenkins methodology is that the structure of the data generating process does not change over time. How can structural changes be identified ? The strucchange package can help in that and the present tutorial shows how.We are going to do a basic exploration of the globtemp time series as available within the astsa package. The globtemp dataset reports the deviation (in degrees centigrade) from [1951-1980] global mean land-ocean temperature. Let us have a look at it.We can see a remarkable increase of the temperature deviations in the last decades. The globtemp time series appears to be non stationary due basically to the last decades upward trend. A plot of globtemp against…
Original Post: Structural Changes in Global Warming