Bayesian Statistics, Multilevel Modeling

Plausibility vs. probability, prior distributions, and the garden of forking paths

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I’ll start off this blog on the first work day of the new year with an important post connecting some ideas we’ve been lately talking a lot about. Someone rolls a die four times, and he tells you he got the numbers 1, 4, 3, 6. Is this a plausible outcome? Sure. Is is probable? No. The prior probability of…
Original post: Plausibility vs. probability, prior distributions, and the garden of forking paths
Source: Andrew Gelman